2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 11:00 PM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium

New Mexico State @ Sam Houston

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

20.3

Sam Houston

30.8

Sam Houston win probability: 75%

Margin (Sam Houston − New Mexico State): 10.6 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: New Mexico State 11 – Sam Houston 31 (margin error 9.4, total error 9.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.