Predicted scoreLikely
USC
19.7
Michigan
29.6
Michigan win probability: 74%
Margin (Michigan − USC): 9.9 (80% range -10 to 30)
Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: USC 24 – Michigan 27 (margin error 6.9, total error 1.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.