2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM · AmFirst Stadium
Southern Miss @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreLean
Southern Miss
25.5
Jacksonville State
31.4
Jacksonville State win probability: 64%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Southern Miss): 5.9 (80% range -15 to 27)
Total: 56.8 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Southern Miss 7 – Jacksonville State 44 (margin error 31.1, total error 5.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.