2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 5:00 PM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium

Ball State @ Central Michigan

Predicted scoreToss-up

Ball State

25.5

Central Michigan

28.2

Central Michigan win probability: 57%

Margin (Central Michigan − Ball State): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Ball State 34 – Central Michigan 37 (margin error 0.3, total error 17.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.