Predicted scoreLikely
Ohio
18.6
Kentucky
29.6
Kentucky win probability: 76%
Margin (Kentucky − Ohio): 11.0 (80% range -8 to 31)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Ohio 6 – Kentucky 41 (margin error 24.0, total error 1.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.