Predicted scoreLean
UCF
25.9
TCU
34.3
TCU win probability: 69%
Margin (TCU − UCF): 8.4 (80% range -13 to 29)
Total: 60.2 (80% range 36 to 86)
Actual: UCF 35 – TCU 34 (margin error 9.4, total error 8.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.55% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.