Predicted scoreToss-up
UCF
21.4
Colorado
24.4
Colorado win probability: 58%
Margin (Colorado − UCF): 3.1 (80% range -16 to 22)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:00 PM | 5.7 | 52.4 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:10 PM | 5.7 | 52.3 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:22 PM | 5.7 | 52.3 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:36 AM | 5.7 | 52.3 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:59 PM | 5.7 | 52.3 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:36 PM | 4.2 | 53.1 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:53 PM | 5.8 | 51.1 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:02 PM | 4.5 | 48.9 | 61% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:14 PM | 4.4 | 48.9 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:02 PM | 4.6 | 48.9 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:21 PM | 4.6 | 48.9 | 62% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:53 PM | 0.2 | 45.5 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:39 PM | 2.4 | 45.7 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:51 PM | 1.6 | 46.8 | 54% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:58 PM | 3.1 | 45.8 | 58% |