Predicted scoreLikely
Auburn
17.8
Alabama
31.1
Alabama win probability: 80%
Margin (Alabama − Auburn): 13.2 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:58 PM | 12.6 | 48.4 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:04 PM | 12.6 | 48.4 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:26 PM | 12.6 | 48.4 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:40 AM | 12.6 | 48.4 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:57 PM | 12.8 | 48.5 | 80% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:32 PM | 11.8 | 48.3 | 78% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:57 PM | 16.4 | 47.7 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:34 PM | 16.4 | 47.2 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:11 PM | 16.3 | 47.1 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:05 PM | 15.4 | 47.8 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:24 PM | 15.4 | 47.8 | 84% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:58 PM | 17.2 | 52.1 | 86% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:43 PM | 18.8 | 50.2 | 89% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:54 PM | 18.1 | 49.3 | 88% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:00 PM | 13.2 | 48.9 | 80% |