2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Plaster Sports Complex
Liberty @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreLean
Liberty
29.4
Missouri State
21.5
Missouri State win probability: 30%
Margin (Missouri State − Liberty): -7.9 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:13 PM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:12 PM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:42 PM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:57 AM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:04 PM | 4.0 | 55.2 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:28 PM | 4.2 | 54.8 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:26 PM | -0.9 | 51.1 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:21 PM | -1.3 | 52.4 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:58 PM | -1.3 | 52.5 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:15 PM | -0.9 | 52.4 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:34 PM | -0.9 | 52.4 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:49 PM | -4.1 | 51.6 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:51 PM | -4.9 | 51.5 | 38% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:12 PM | -9.1 | 52.0 | 28% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:54 PM | -7.9 | 51.0 | 30% |