2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Plaster Sports Complex
Liberty @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreLean
Liberty
25.6
Missouri State
29.7
Missouri State win probability: 61%
Margin (Missouri State − Liberty): 4.1 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:13 PM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:12 PM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:42 PM | 4.1 | 55.2 | 61% |