2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Autzen Stadium
Washington @ Oregon
Predicted scoreLikely
Washington
17.3
Oregon
28.2
Oregon win probability: 76%
Margin (Oregon − Washington): 10.9 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 45.6 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:08 PM | 10.7 | 50.8 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:07 PM | 10.7 | 50.8 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:16 PM | 10.7 | 50.8 | 75% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:15 AM | 10.6 | 50.8 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:13 PM | 10.7 | 50.8 | 75% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:06:00 PM | 10.9 | 50.0 | 76% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:47 PM | 8.0 | 49.8 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:16 PM | 6.1 | 49.3 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:50 PM | 6.2 | 49.3 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:59 PM | 6.5 | 49.4 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:18 PM | 6.5 | 49.4 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:47 PM | 13.5 | 48.4 | 81% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:35 PM | 13.0 | 48.8 | 81% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:47 PM | 12.5 | 48.1 | 79% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:15 PM | 10.9 | 45.6 | 76% |