Predicted scoreLean
Marshall
30.1
UL Monroe
22.9
UL Monroe win probability: 33%
Margin (UL Monroe − Marshall): -7.2 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:10 PM | -6.4 | 53.6 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:07 PM | -6.4 | 53.6 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:17 PM | -6.4 | 53.6 | 35% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:14 AM | -6.4 | 53.6 | 35% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:12 PM | -6.5 | 53.6 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:59 PM | -6.3 | 53.8 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:47 PM | -5.9 | 54.5 | 36% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:15 PM | -4.6 | 53.0 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:49 PM | -4.5 | 52.9 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:31 PM | -4.2 | 52.9 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:48 PM | -4.2 | 52.9 | 40% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:45 PM | -6.9 | 54.8 | 34% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:36 PM | -5.8 | 55.4 | 36% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:46 PM | -5.4 | 54.9 | 37% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:14 PM | -7.2 | 53.0 | 33% |