Predicted scoreToss-up
USC
27.6
UCLA
29.4
UCLA win probability: 54%
Margin (UCLA − USC): 1.8 (80% range -19 to 22)
Total: 57.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:10 PM | -12.9 | 57.2 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:06 PM | -12.9 | 57.2 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:27 PM | -12.9 | 57.2 | 21% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:41 AM | -12.9 | 57.2 | 21% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:57 PM | -12.9 | 57.2 | 21% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:31 PM | -12.4 | 57.0 | 22% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:58 PM | -9.7 | 59.3 | 27% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:33 PM | -6.8 | 58.6 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:10 PM | -6.8 | 58.7 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:05 PM | -6.5 | 58.6 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:24 PM | -6.5 | 58.6 | 35% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:58 PM | 1.9 | 58.9 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:43 PM | 2.3 | 58.0 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:55 PM | 2.0 | 56.0 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:01 PM | 1.8 | 57.1 | 54% |