Predicted scoreToss-up
Baylor
27.8
Houston
30.9
Houston win probability: 58%
Margin (Houston − Baylor): 3.2 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 58.7 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.55% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:02 PM | 4.1 | 56.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:11 PM | 4.1 | 56.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:22 PM | 4.1 | 56.0 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:36 AM | 4.1 | 56.0 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:59 PM | 4.1 | 56.0 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:35 PM | 3.9 | 56.1 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:53 PM | -0.3 | 57.3 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:02 PM | 0.3 | 57.5 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:13 PM | 0.3 | 57.5 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:02 PM | 0.5 | 57.5 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:21 PM | 0.5 | 57.5 | 51% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:53 PM | 2.5 | 58.8 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:39 PM | 0.7 | 59.6 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:51 PM | 3.5 | 59.4 | 58% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:58 PM | 3.2 | 58.7 | 58% |