2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Kansas State @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
25.6
Iowa State
27.3
Iowa State win probability: 54%
Margin (Iowa State − Kansas State): 1.7 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:03 PM | 2.0 | 51.1 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:04 PM | 2.0 | 51.1 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:13 PM | 2.0 | 51.1 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:19 AM | 2.0 | 51.1 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:15 PM | 2.1 | 51.1 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:06:04 PM | 2.1 | 51.1 | 55% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:42 PM | 2.1 | 51.6 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:05 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:48 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:30 PM | -0.4 | 50.2 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:47 PM | -0.4 | 50.3 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:44 PM | 5.2 | 53.6 | 63% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:55 PM | 3.8 | 54.2 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:44 PM | 2.8 | 54.1 | 57% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:13 PM | 1.7 | 52.9 | 54% |