2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · FirstBank Stadium
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
Tennessee
29.1
Vanderbilt
18.8
Vanderbilt win probability: 25%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Tennessee): -10.3 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 47.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:11 PM | 3.6 | 61.0 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:11 PM | 3.6 | 59.6 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:14 PM | 3.6 | 61.0 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:20 AM | 3.5 | 61.0 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:15 PM | 3.6 | 61.0 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:06:05 PM | 4.5 | 59.2 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:42 PM | 4.9 | 58.7 | 62% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:05 PM | -3.8 | 57.3 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:47 PM | -3.7 | 57.4 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:28 PM | -3.5 | 57.3 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:45 PM | -3.5 | 57.3 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:43 PM | -5.7 | 51.8 | 36% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:42 PM | -5.3 | 52.1 | 37% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:43 PM | -6.3 | 50.1 | 34% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:12 PM | -10.3 | 47.9 | 25% |