2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kennesaw State
23.4
Western Kentucky
26.5
Western Kentucky win probability: 58%
Margin (Western Kentucky − Kennesaw State): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:12 PM | 3.1 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:12 PM | 3.1 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:40 PM | 3.1 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:54 AM | 3.1 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:06 PM | 3.1 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:41 PM | 3.2 | 52.1 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:23 PM | 0.6 | 53.1 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:23 PM | 2.5 | 53.3 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:00 PM | 2.5 | 53.4 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:16 PM | 3.0 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:36 PM | 3.0 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:48 PM | 4.2 | 51.0 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:52 PM | 2.2 | 50.0 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:13 PM | 3.6 | 50.7 | 59% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:54 PM | 3.1 | 49.9 | 58% |