2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Huskie Stadium
UTEP @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreLean
UTEP
19.6
Northern Illinois
27.2
Northern Illinois win probability: 69%
Margin (Northern Illinois − UTEP): 7.6 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 26 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:06 PM | 3.6 | 46.1 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:05 PM | 3.6 | 46.1 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:18 PM | 3.6 | 46.2 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:32 AM | 3.6 | 46.2 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:01 PM | 3.6 | 46.2 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:40 PM | 3.6 | 46.5 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:48 PM | 4.3 | 42.8 | 61% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:15 PM | 4.0 | 42.7 | 61% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:55 PM | 4.1 | 42.6 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:59 PM | 4.3 | 42.7 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:19 PM | 4.3 | 42.7 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:50 PM | 6.6 | 43.5 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:37 PM | 8.8 | 42.6 | 72% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:48 PM | 8.2 | 42.8 | 71% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:56 PM | 7.6 | 46.8 | 69% |