2024 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024, 4:00 PM · Michigan Stadium
Arkansas State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreConfident
Arkansas State
12.1
Michigan
43.2
Michigan win probability: 98%
Margin (Michigan − Arkansas State): 31.1 (80% range 10 to 52)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 33 to 79)
Actual: Arkansas State 18 – Michigan 28 (margin error 21.1, total error 9.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.87% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 42 | 0.85% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.