2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Duke @ Wake Forest
Predicted scoreLean
Duke
25.2
Wake Forest
33.0
Wake Forest win probability: 68%
Margin (Wake Forest − Duke): 7.8 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 58.2 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:12 PM | -1.5 | 56.3 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:07 PM | -1.5 | 56.3 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:30 PM | -1.5 | 56.3 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:44 AM | -1.5 | 56.3 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:55 PM | -1.4 | 56.3 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:51 PM | -1.6 | 56.4 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:13 PM | -2.4 | 56.7 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:30 PM | -2.0 | 60.9 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:07 PM | -2.0 | 61.0 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:08 PM | -1.7 | 60.9 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:27 PM | -1.7 | 60.9 | 46% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:35:01 PM | 0.4 | 56.9 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:45 PM | 6.3 | 57.0 | 65% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:57 PM | 7.3 | 58.2 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:03 PM | 7.8 | 58.2 | 68% |