2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 8:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium
Florida @ Florida State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida
33.4
Florida State
30.2
Florida State win probability: 42%
Margin (Florida State − Florida): -3.2 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 63.6 (80% range 38 to 90)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.53% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.53% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.52% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.51% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:01 PM | 2.4 | 52.7 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:01 PM | 2.4 | 52.7 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:08 PM | 2.4 | 52.7 | 56% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:23 AM | 2.4 | 52.7 | 56% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:17 PM | 2.4 | 52.7 | 56% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:24 PM | 2.4 | 53.1 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:39 PM | -4.1 | 57.7 | 40% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:08 PM | -4.7 | 57.5 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:44 PM | -4.7 | 57.5 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:26 PM | -4.5 | 57.5 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:44 PM | -4.5 | 57.5 | 39% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:41 PM | -11.0 | 61.9 | 25% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:41 PM | -3.5 | 63.0 | 42% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:09 PM | -4.0 | 63.4 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:11 PM | -3.2 | 63.6 | 42% |