Predicted scoreToss-up
Nebraska
22.5
Iowa
24.9
Iowa win probability: 56%
Margin (Iowa − Nebraska): 2.4 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 47.4 (80% range 26 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:03 PM | 8.7 | 45.5 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:00 PM | 8.7 | 45.6 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:04 PM | 8.7 | 45.6 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:25 AM | 8.7 | 45.7 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:02 PM | 8.8 | 45.7 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:22 PM | 8.4 | 46.1 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:37 PM | 8.4 | 46.1 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:09 PM | 5.7 | 46.7 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:17 PM | 5.6 | 46.7 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:24 PM | 5.8 | 46.8 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:42 PM | 5.8 | 46.8 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:39 PM | 4.2 | 46.6 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:57 PM | 3.4 | 47.6 | 59% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:03 PM | 2.9 | 50.2 | 58% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:09 PM | 2.4 | 47.4 | 56% |