Predicted scoreToss-up
Toledo
25.1
Ohio
23.7
Ohio win probability: 46%
Margin (Ohio − Toledo): -1.4 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:07 PM | -1.4 | 50.0 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:00 PM | -1.4 | 50.0 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:07 PM | -1.4 | 48.9 | 46% |