Predicted scoreToss-up
Toledo
26.0
Ohio
26.0
Ohio win probability: 50%
Margin (Ohio − Toledo): -0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:07 PM | -1.4 | 50.0 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:00 PM | -1.4 | 50.0 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:07 PM | -1.4 | 48.9 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:26 AM | -1.4 | 48.8 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:54 PM | -1.3 | 48.8 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:54 PM | -2.7 | 49.7 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:35 PM | -4.9 | 53.0 | 38% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:10 PM | -5.0 | 52.9 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:17 PM | -5.0 | 52.9 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:23 PM | -4.5 | 52.8 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:41 PM | -4.5 | 52.8 | 39% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:38 PM | -5.7 | 54.5 | 36% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:57 PM | -5.8 | 53.3 | 36% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:03 PM | -1.4 | 51.9 | 47% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:09 PM | -0.0 | 51.9 | 50% |