2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Milan Puskar Stadium
Houston @ West Virginia
Predicted scoreLean
Houston
35.5
West Virginia
27.3
West Virginia win probability: 31%
Margin (West Virginia − Houston): -8.2 (80% range -30 to 13)
Total: 62.9 (80% range 38 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 35 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:57 PM | -2.4 | 52.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | -2.4 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:37 PM | -2.4 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:27 AM | -2.4 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:40 PM | -2.5 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:01 PM | -2.6 | 52.9 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:58 PM | -2.9 | 56.4 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:53 PM | -3.9 | 56.1 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:13 PM | -3.9 | 56.1 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:33 PM | -3.7 | 56.1 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:55 PM | -3.7 | 56.1 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:30 PM | -4.6 | 62.1 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:18 PM | -4.7 | 62.2 | 39% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:34 PM | -8.6 | 61.1 | 30% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:41 PM | -8.2 | 62.9 | 31% |