2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
Predicted scoreLean
Pittsburgh
24.2
Louisville
29.9
Louisville win probability: 64%
Margin (Louisville − Pittsburgh): 5.8 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:48 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:23 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:57 AM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:39 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:53 PM | 5.8 | 47.7 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:54 PM | 3.3 | 53.6 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:50 PM | 5.6 | 51.7 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:14 PM | 5.6 | 51.7 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:32 PM | 5.8 | 51.7 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:53 PM | 5.8 | 51.7 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:29 PM | 2.0 | 53.5 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:20 PM | 1.9 | 53.3 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:38 PM | 4.9 | 53.0 | 62% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:44 PM | 5.8 | 54.1 | 64% |