2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
Predicted scoreLean
Pittsburgh
21.5
Louisville
27.1
Louisville win probability: 64%
Margin (Louisville − Pittsburgh): 5.6 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:48 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:23 PM | 5.6 | 48.6 | 64% |