Predicted scoreConfident
Maryland
20.0
USC
38.1
USC win probability: 87%
Margin (USC − Maryland): 18.1 (80% range -3 to 39)
Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 45 | 0.60% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:56 PM | 16.2 | 56.6 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:51 PM | 16.2 | 56.5 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:27 PM | 16.2 | 56.5 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:37 AM | 16.2 | 56.5 | 84% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:48 PM | 16.1 | 56.4 | 84% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:13 PM | 16.0 | 56.5 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:08 PM | 17.1 | 57.2 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:58 PM | 11.4 | 56.2 | 76% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:30 PM | 11.4 | 56.2 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:42 PM | 11.5 | 56.2 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:11 PM | 11.5 | 56.2 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:20 PM | 17.1 | 58.1 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:31 PM | 17.7 | 56.7 | 86% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:19 PM | 16.9 | 56.6 | 85% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:37 PM | 18.1 | 58.1 | 87% |