Predicted scoreLean
Kentucky
19.6
Missouri
24.7
Missouri win probability: 63%
Margin (Missouri − Kentucky): 5.1 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 44.2 (80% range 23 to 66)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:49 PM | 5.1 | 44.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:45 PM | 5.1 | 44.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:29 PM | 5.1 | 44.2 | 63% |