Predicted scoreLean
Kentucky
20.5
Missouri
24.9
Missouri win probability: 62%
Margin (Missouri − Kentucky): 4.4 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 45.4 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:49 PM | 5.1 | 44.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:45 PM | 5.1 | 44.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:29 PM | 5.1 | 44.2 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:54 AM | 5.1 | 44.2 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:42 PM | 5.1 | 44.3 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:14 PM | 6.1 | 44.3 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:09 PM | 7.4 | 44.0 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:57 PM | 12.3 | 43.0 | 80% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:10 PM | 12.0 | 42.1 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:36 PM | 12.1 | 42.2 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:58 PM | 12.1 | 42.2 | 80% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:58 PM | 5.9 | 42.4 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:21 PM | 7.3 | 43.9 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:39 PM | 7.8 | 44.5 | 70% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:45 PM | 4.4 | 45.4 | 62% |