Predicted scoreConfident
Charlotte
16.1
Tulsa
32.8
Tulsa win probability: 86%
Margin (Tulsa − Charlotte): 16.7 (80% range -3 to 37)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:55 PM | 4.5 | 49.9 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:50 PM | 4.5 | 49.9 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:27 PM | 4.5 | 49.9 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:46 AM | 4.5 | 49.9 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:36 PM | 4.5 | 49.8 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:58 PM | 2.9 | 49.4 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:57 PM | 5.4 | 49.3 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:52 PM | 6.5 | 50.1 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:31 PM | 6.5 | 50.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:38 PM | 6.8 | 50.1 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:07 PM | 6.8 | 50.1 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:15 PM | 13.0 | 46.0 | 81% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:28 PM | 17.8 | 45.3 | 88% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:24 PM | 18.3 | 46.0 | 89% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:28 PM | 16.7 | 48.9 | 86% |