2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Huntington Bank Stadium
Northwestern @ Minnesota
Predicted scoreLikely
Northwestern
30.1
Minnesota
18.7
Minnesota win probability: 23%
Margin (Minnesota − Northwestern): -11.4 (80% range -31 to 8)
Total: 48.8 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:49 PM | -1.0 | 47.6 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | -1.0 | 47.7 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:24 PM | -1.0 | 47.7 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:48 AM | -1.0 | 47.7 | 48% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:47 PM | -1.0 | 47.7 | 48% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:18 PM | -1.0 | 48.7 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:10 PM | -1.8 | 48.6 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:57 PM | -4.0 | 48.3 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:28 PM | -4.0 | 48.3 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:45 PM | -3.5 | 48.3 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:08 PM | -3.5 | 48.3 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:16 PM | -10.3 | 49.2 | 26% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:28 PM | -11.7 | 47.3 | 23% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:23 PM | -11.0 | 49.2 | 24% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:27 PM | -11.4 | 48.8 | 23% |