2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Fifth Third Stadium
Florida International @ Kennesaw State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida International
23.5
Kennesaw State
22.5
Kennesaw State win probability: 47%
Margin (Kennesaw State − Florida International): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 46.0 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:46 PM | 2.6 | 50.2 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:56 PM | 2.6 | 50.2 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:52 PM | 2.7 | 50.2 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:07 AM | 2.7 | 50.2 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:51 PM | 2.7 | 50.2 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:36 PM | 2.3 | 50.6 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:38 PM | 0.8 | 49.2 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:33 PM | -2.0 | 51.5 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:37 PM | -2.0 | 51.5 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:57 PM | -1.6 | 51.5 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:59 PM | -1.6 | 51.5 | 46% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:07 PM | -1.2 | 46.7 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:23 PM | 0.2 | 47.1 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:30 PM | -2.1 | 45.8 | 45% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:34 PM | -1.0 | 46.0 | 47% |