Predicted scoreLean
Wisconsin
29.3
Purdue
24.8
Purdue win probability: 39%
Margin (Purdue − Wisconsin): -4.5 (80% range -24 to 16)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:52 PM | -3.2 | 50.2 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:52 PM | -3.2 | 49.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:26 PM | -3.2 | 49.1 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:50 AM | -3.1 | 49.0 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:44 PM | -3.2 | 49.1 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:06 PM | -2.9 | 49.9 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:03 PM | -3.3 | 51.2 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:27 PM | -4.3 | 54.9 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:12 PM | -4.2 | 54.9 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:34 PM | -3.8 | 54.9 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:56 PM | -3.8 | 54.9 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:56 PM | -6.3 | 56.1 | 35% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:19 PM | -6.3 | 54.7 | 35% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:36 PM | -4.3 | 54.7 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:42 PM | -4.5 | 54.2 | 39% |