Predicted scoreToss-up
LSU
21.3
Tennessee
23.8
Tennessee win probability: 57%
Margin (Tennessee − LSU): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 45.1 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.94% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:54 PM | 5.7 | 51.0 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:46 PM | 5.7 | 51.0 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:32 PM | 5.7 | 51.0 | 64% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:47 AM | 5.7 | 51.0 | 64% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:41 PM | 5.7 | 51.0 | 64% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:55 PM | 5.4 | 51.1 | 64% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:31 PM | -0.7 | 51.0 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:38 PM | 5.9 | 49.7 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:24 PM | 5.9 | 49.8 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:48 PM | 4.7 | 49.8 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:09 PM | 4.7 | 49.8 | 62% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:17 PM | 1.6 | 48.0 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:29 PM | 1.8 | 46.8 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:22 PM | 2.1 | 47.1 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:27 PM | 2.6 | 45.1 | 57% |