Predicted scoreLean
Utah
27.4
TCU
22.1
TCU win probability: 37%
Margin (TCU − Utah): -5.4 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:53 PM | -3.1 | 56.3 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:48 PM | -3.1 | 56.3 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:22 PM | -3.1 | 56.3 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:36 AM | -3.1 | 56.3 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:44 PM | -3.2 | 56.2 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:03 PM | -3.3 | 55.9 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:00 PM | -6.0 | 52.8 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:29 PM | -8.3 | 52.3 | 30% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:27 PM | -8.3 | 52.2 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:39 PM | -8.1 | 52.2 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:10 PM | -8.1 | 52.2 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:17 PM | -9.6 | 49.0 | 27% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:29 PM | -9.3 | 49.4 | 27% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:21 PM | -9.2 | 49.5 | 27% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:26 PM | -5.4 | 49.5 | 37% |