2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · California Memorial Stadium
Stanford @ California
Predicted scoreLean
Stanford
21.7
California
28.5
California win probability: 67%
Margin (California − Stanford): 6.9 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:43 PM | 4.1 | 49.6 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:45 PM | 4.1 | 49.6 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:44 PM | 4.1 | 49.6 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:53 AM | 4.1 | 49.6 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:37 PM | 4.1 | 49.7 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:53 PM | 4.1 | 49.5 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:54 PM | 3.7 | 50.8 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:51 PM | 3.6 | 49.5 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:14 PM | 3.6 | 49.6 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:32 PM | 4.0 | 49.6 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:54 PM | 4.0 | 49.6 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:29 PM | 3.3 | 49.1 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:20 PM | 6.5 | 48.3 | 66% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:38 PM | 7.8 | 48.9 | 69% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:44 PM | 6.9 | 50.2 | 67% |