2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Western Kentucky @ Liberty
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Kentucky
28.1
Liberty
26.5
Liberty win probability: 46%
Margin (Liberty − Western Kentucky): -1.6 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:47 PM | -1.5 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:55 PM | -1.5 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:50 PM | -1.6 | 54.6 | 46% |