2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Western Kentucky @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLikely
Western Kentucky
21.2
Liberty
29.7
Liberty win probability: 71%
Margin (Liberty − Western Kentucky): 8.6 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:47 PM | -1.5 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:55 PM | -1.5 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:50 PM | -1.6 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:04 AM | -1.5 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:50 PM | -1.6 | 54.6 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:34 PM | -2.0 | 54.1 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:35 PM | 2.2 | 56.3 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:35 PM | 2.6 | 57.1 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:36 PM | 2.6 | 57.1 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:41 PM | 2.8 | 57.1 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:01 PM | 2.8 | 57.1 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:09 PM | 6.3 | 54.2 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:24 PM | 9.3 | 51.6 | 72% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:28 PM | 9.9 | 52.5 | 74% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:33 PM | 8.6 | 50.9 | 71% |