2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · FAU Stadium
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreLean
South Florida
30.8
Florida Atlantic
25.0
Florida Atlantic win probability: 36%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − South Florida): -5.8 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 32 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:44 PM | -11.4 | 57.0 | 24% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:50 PM | -11.3 | 57.0 | 24% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:28 PM | -11.3 | 57.0 | 24% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:46 AM | -11.3 | 57.0 | 24% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:45 PM | -11.4 | 57.0 | 24% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:10 PM | -12.2 | 56.6 | 22% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:05 PM | -12.9 | 58.8 | 22% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:00 PM | -12.8 | 60.4 | 22% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:11 PM | -12.7 | 60.4 | 22% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:35 PM | -12.5 | 60.4 | 22% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:56 PM | -12.5 | 60.4 | 22% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:56 PM | -6.5 | 56.8 | 34% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:22 PM | -6.0 | 56.5 | 35% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:40 PM | -4.8 | 57.1 | 38% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:45 PM | -5.8 | 55.7 | 36% |