Predicted scoreLean
Iowa
30.1
Illinois
24.2
Illinois win probability: 36%
Margin (Illinois − Iowa): -5.9 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:45 PM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:49 PM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:39 PM | -2.7 | 48.0 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:49 AM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:37 PM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:03 PM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:01 PM | -5.3 | 46.3 | 36% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:28 PM | -5.0 | 47.8 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:26 PM | -4.9 | 47.8 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:47 PM | -4.7 | 47.7 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:12 PM | -4.7 | 47.8 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:22 PM | -4.3 | 50.8 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:17 PM | -4.5 | 51.1 | 39% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:12 PM | -5.8 | 53.9 | 36% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:40 PM | -5.9 | 54.3 | 36% |