Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
25.3
Illinois
22.6
Illinois win probability: 43%
Margin (Illinois − Iowa): -2.7 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 48.0 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:45 PM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:49 PM | -2.7 | 47.9 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:39 PM | -2.7 | 48.0 | 43% |