2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Delaware @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreLean
Delaware
22.3
New Mexico State
30.1
New Mexico State win probability: 69%
Margin (New Mexico State − Delaware): 7.8 (80% range -12 to 28)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:50 PM | 2.1 | 54.2 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:56 PM | 2.0 | 54.2 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:53 PM | 2.0 | 54.2 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:06 AM | 2.1 | 54.2 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:51 PM | 2.0 | 54.1 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:37 PM | 2.3 | 53.4 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:37 PM | 5.4 | 56.5 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:33 PM | 0.9 | 52.1 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:38 PM | 0.8 | 52.1 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:57 PM | 1.0 | 52.1 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:59 PM | 1.0 | 52.1 | 53% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:08 PM | 1.8 | 53.2 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:23 PM | 7.2 | 52.5 | 67% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:29 PM | 5.8 | 50.7 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:34 PM | 7.8 | 52.4 | 69% |