Predicted scoreConfident
UTEP
16.2
Air Force
36.7
Air Force win probability: 91%
Margin (Air Force − UTEP): 20.5 (80% range 0 to 41)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:41 PM | 6.6 | 52.3 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:45 PM | 6.7 | 52.3 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:19 PM | 6.6 | 52.3 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:34 AM | 6.6 | 52.3 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:34 PM | 6.7 | 52.3 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:50 PM | 6.7 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:51 PM | 10.7 | 51.3 | 75% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:48 PM | 12.6 | 52.1 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:15 PM | 12.7 | 52.1 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:31 PM | 13.0 | 52.1 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:52 PM | 13.0 | 52.1 | 80% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:27 PM | 15.7 | 52.3 | 84% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:13 PM | 17.7 | 49.1 | 88% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:11 PM | 19.0 | 50.1 | 89% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:47 PM | 20.5 | 52.8 | 91% |