2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Utah State @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah State
23.1
San Diego State
26.9
San Diego State win probability: 60%
Margin (San Diego State − Utah State): 3.8 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:35 PM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:42 PM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:11 PM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |