2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Utah State @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreLean
Utah State
25.6
San Diego State
21.2
San Diego State win probability: 39%
Margin (San Diego State − Utah State): -4.4 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 26 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:35 PM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:42 PM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:11 PM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:04 AM | 3.8 | 50.0 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:06 PM | 2.6 | 49.9 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:55 PM | 2.5 | 49.8 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:23 PM | 1.7 | 50.0 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:24 PM | -2.2 | 48.6 | 44% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:55 PM | -2.2 | 48.6 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:54 PM | -1.3 | 48.5 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:15 PM | -1.3 | 48.5 | 46% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:54 PM | -2.1 | 46.8 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:44 PM | -2.8 | 46.6 | 42% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:53 PM | -6.0 | 45.9 | 35% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:25 PM | -4.4 | 46.8 | 39% |