2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 11:00 PM · Albertsons Stadium
Oregon State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLean
Oregon State
28.2
Boise State
33.9
Boise State win probability: 63%
Margin (Boise State − Oregon State): 5.7 (80% range -15 to 27)
Total: 62.1 (80% range 37 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.54% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.54% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:26 PM | 16.2 | 51.1 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 16.2 | 51.1 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:09 PM | 16.2 | 51.1 | 85% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:02 AM | 16.2 | 51.1 | 85% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:07 PM | 16.1 | 51.1 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:57 PM | 15.8 | 50.2 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:20 PM | 17.7 | 52.4 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:25 PM | 14.2 | 54.3 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:54 PM | 14.2 | 54.4 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:52 PM | 14.5 | 54.4 | 82% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:45 PM | 14.5 | 54.4 | 82% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:52 PM | 12.3 | 53.0 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:43 PM | 11.5 | 56.8 | 76% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:51 PM | 6.4 | 60.2 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:24 PM | 5.7 | 62.1 | 63% |