2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 8:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Boston College @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreConfident
Boston College
12.6
Notre Dame
38.4
Notre Dame win probability: 95%
Margin (Notre Dame − Boston College): 25.8 (80% range 6 to 46)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.95% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:33 PM | 26.4 | 55.2 | 95% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:40 PM | 26.5 | 55.2 | 95% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:07 PM | 26.5 | 55.2 | 95% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:01 AM | 26.5 | 55.2 | 95% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:08 PM | 26.5 | 55.2 | 95% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:58 PM | 26.2 | 54.9 | 95% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:19 PM | 29.8 | 56.1 | 97% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:26 PM | 31.2 | 53.5 | 98% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:53 PM | 31.2 | 53.5 | 98% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:50 PM | 31.2 | 53.6 | 98% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:44 PM | 31.2 | 53.6 | 98% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:50 PM | 29.7 | 47.8 | 98% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:07 PM | 28.9 | 49.0 | 97% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:50 PM | 29.1 | 49.4 | 97% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:23 PM | 25.8 | 51.0 | 95% |