2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · FirstBank Stadium
Alabama @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
31.7
Vanderbilt
18.9
Vanderbilt win probability: 20%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Alabama): -12.8 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:39 PM | -0.4 | 59.0 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:37 PM | -0.4 | 59.0 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:38 PM | -0.4 | 59.0 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:09 AM | -0.4 | 59.0 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:25 PM | -0.4 | 59.0 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:44 PM | -1.0 | 58.9 | 48% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:12 PM | -1.7 | 58.5 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:56 PM | -7.1 | 53.3 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:38 PM | -7.1 | 53.4 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:13 PM | -6.9 | 53.3 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:26 PM | -6.9 | 53.3 | 33% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:28 PM | -11.2 | 53.7 | 24% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:53 PM | -13.2 | 52.8 | 20% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:36 PM | -15.9 | 51.7 | 15% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:06 PM | -12.8 | 50.5 | 20% |