2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kennesaw State
26.6
Sam Houston
24.2
Sam Houston win probability: 44%
Margin (Sam Houston − Kennesaw State): -2.4 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:35 PM | -7.7 | 51.0 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:39 PM | -7.6 | 51.0 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:04 PM | -7.7 | 51.0 | 31% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:57 AM | -7.6 | 50.9 | 31% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:10 PM | -7.7 | 50.9 | 31% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:02 PM | -7.6 | 50.9 | 31% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:15 PM | -5.3 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:54 PM | -2.4 | 53.6 | 44% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:36 PM | -2.4 | 53.6 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:49 PM | -1.9 | 53.5 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:16 PM | -1.9 | 53.5 | 45% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:48 PM | 0.9 | 52.7 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:06 PM | 0.9 | 52.7 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:48 PM | -0.2 | 53.4 | 50% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:21 PM | -2.4 | 50.9 | 44% |