2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Arizona State @ UCF
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arizona State
26.4
UCF
24.4
UCF win probability: 45%
Margin (UCF − Arizona State): -2.0 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:38 PM | -2.0 | 50.9 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:32 PM | -2.0 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:41 PM | -2.0 | 50.9 | 45% |