2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Arizona State @ UCF
Predicted scoreLean
Arizona State
21.3
UCF
26.4
UCF win probability: 63%
Margin (UCF − Arizona State): 5.1 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 47.7 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:38 PM | -2.0 | 50.9 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:32 PM | -2.0 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:41 PM | -2.0 | 50.9 | 45% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:41 AM | -2.0 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:21 PM | -2.1 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:47 PM | -1.6 | 51.0 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:07 PM | -1.3 | 51.3 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:05 PM | -1.3 | 48.6 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:03 PM | -1.3 | 48.5 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:22 PM | -1.1 | 48.5 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:39 PM | -1.1 | 48.5 | 47% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:41 PM | 1.4 | 43.5 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:02 PM | 3.8 | 45.3 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:30 PM | 4.3 | 47.3 | 61% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:08 PM | 5.1 | 47.7 | 63% |