2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Kansas State @ TCU
Predicted scoreLean
Kansas State
24.2
TCU
28.6
TCU win probability: 61%
Margin (TCU − Kansas State): 4.5 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:36 PM | 4.4 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:32 PM | 4.4 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:40 PM | 4.5 | 52.8 | 61% |