2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Kansas State @ TCU
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
24.2
TCU
26.7
TCU win probability: 56%
Margin (TCU − Kansas State): 2.5 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:36 PM | 4.4 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:32 PM | 4.4 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:40 PM | 4.5 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:14 AM | 4.4 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:20 PM | 4.4 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:51 PM | 4.4 | 52.5 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:08 PM | 1.7 | 51.5 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:11 PM | -0.9 | 50.3 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:39 PM | -0.9 | 50.3 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:01 PM | -0.7 | 50.3 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:22 PM | -0.7 | 50.3 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:45 PM | -1.0 | 51.8 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:03 PM | -0.8 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:38 PM | 1.4 | 52.1 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:14 PM | 2.5 | 50.9 | 56% |