2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Cincinnati @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Cincinnati
25.7
Iowa State
31.0
Iowa State win probability: 63%
Margin (Iowa State − Cincinnati): 5.3 (80% range -15 to 27)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:35 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:57 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:54 AM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:22 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:50 PM | 5.5 | 55.7 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:06 PM | 4.0 | 56.6 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:20 PM | 6.2 | 56.4 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:57 PM | 6.2 | 56.4 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:19 PM | 6.4 | 56.5 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:34 PM | 6.4 | 56.4 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:39 PM | 6.1 | 57.6 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:00 PM | 7.5 | 57.9 | 68% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:34 PM | 5.8 | 55.9 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:14 PM | 5.3 | 56.7 | 63% |