2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Cincinnati @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Cincinnati
24.8
Iowa State
30.9
Iowa State win probability: 65%
Margin (Iowa State − Cincinnati): 6.0 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 32 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:35 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:57 PM | 6.0 | 55.7 | 65% |