Predicted scoreLikely
Duke
19.5
Miami
35.4
Miami win probability: 84%
Margin (Miami − Duke): 15.9 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:31 PM | 15.5 | 57.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:38 PM | 15.5 | 57.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:42 PM | 15.5 | 57.6 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:13 AM | 15.5 | 57.6 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:26 PM | 15.5 | 57.6 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:26 PM | 15.5 | 58.4 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:54 PM | 16.2 | 56.9 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:14 PM | 16.4 | 57.9 | 84% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:40 PM | 16.4 | 57.9 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:12 PM | 16.4 | 57.9 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:36 PM | 16.4 | 57.9 | 84% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:35 PM | 13.5 | 54.1 | 80% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:58 PM | 16.8 | 55.4 | 85% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:45 PM | 17.1 | 55.5 | 86% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:12 PM | 15.9 | 54.9 | 84% |