Predicted scoreLikely
USC
22.7
Indiana
37.7
Indiana win probability: 82%
Margin (Indiana − USC): 15.0 (80% range -6 to 36)
Total: 60.5 (80% range 36 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:28 PM | 18.8 | 58.2 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:31 PM | 18.7 | 58.2 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:35 PM | 18.7 | 58.2 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:10 AM | 18.7 | 58.2 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:27 PM | 18.9 | 58.2 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:49 PM | 18.3 | 57.7 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:57 PM | 18.8 | 59.8 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:06 PM | 19.7 | 60.0 | 89% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:39 PM | 19.8 | 60.1 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:21 PM | 20.1 | 60.1 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:40 PM | 20.1 | 60.1 | 89% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:43 PM | 17.9 | 59.7 | 86% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:00 PM | 18.4 | 61.1 | 87% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:02 PM | 16.2 | 59.1 | 84% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:09 PM | 15.0 | 60.5 | 82% |