2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scott Stadium
California @ Virginia
Predicted scoreLikely
California
19.9
Virginia
30.4
Virginia win probability: 75%
Margin (Virginia − California): 10.5 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:39 PM | 12.0 | 50.8 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:37 PM | 12.0 | 51.4 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:37 PM | 12.0 | 51.4 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:11 AM | 12.0 | 51.3 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:26 PM | 12.1 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:25 PM | 11.6 | 50.8 | 77% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:53 PM | 16.2 | 50.7 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:22 PM | 16.5 | 49.4 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:48 PM | 16.5 | 49.5 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:20 PM | 16.9 | 49.5 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:35 PM | 17.1 | 50.3 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:36 PM | 15.0 | 48.7 | 83% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:58 PM | 12.9 | 49.2 | 80% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:33 PM | 9.9 | 50.5 | 73% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:13 PM | 10.5 | 50.3 | 75% |