2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scott Stadium
California @ Virginia
Predicted scoreLikely
California
19.7
Virginia
31.7
Virginia win probability: 78%
Margin (Virginia − California): 12.0 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:39 PM | 12.0 | 50.8 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:37 PM | 12.0 | 51.4 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:37 PM | 12.0 | 51.4 | 78% |