Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida
26.6
Kentucky
27.2
Kentucky win probability: 52%
Margin (Kentucky − Florida): 0.6 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 2.7 | 44.7 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | 2.7 | 44.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:00 PM | 2.6 | 44.7 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:43 AM | 2.7 | 44.8 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:24 PM | 2.7 | 44.8 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:20 PM | 1.4 | 45.1 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:51 PM | -3.0 | 48.7 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:19 PM | -4.2 | 48.3 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:45 PM | -4.2 | 48.4 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:58 PM | -4.0 | 48.4 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:22 PM | -4.0 | 48.4 | 40% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:44 PM | -4.8 | 51.8 | 38% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:01 PM | -2.5 | 52.9 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:36 PM | 0.0 | 53.5 | 50% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:15 PM | 0.6 | 53.8 | 52% |