Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida
21.1
Kentucky
23.7
Kentucky win probability: 57%
Margin (Kentucky − Florida): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 44.7 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 2.7 | 44.7 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | 2.7 | 44.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:00 PM | 2.6 | 44.7 | 57% |